The world is transitioning from an era of commodity abundance to one of undersupply. We believe this shift may result in significant returns for commodities and resource producers over the next decade.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Megatrends are impacting the commodities market
Secular forces are resulting in inadequate availability of many natural resources, which may potentially drive prices for many commodities higher in the coming years. - An alpha-generation setting for active managers
Supply and demand imbalances across the natural resource universe are creating both winners and losers among commodities and the equities of metals, energy and agriculture producers. - The case for a strategic real assets allocation is strong
Whether as standalone investments or in a multi-strategy real assets allocation, natural resource equities and commodities merit strategic positions in a well-diversified portfolio, in our view.
Megatrends are reshaping demand for commodities
Throughout history, commodity demand has been a function of population and economic growth. This relationship is becoming supercharged, as powerful secular forces are increasing the intensity of commodity use globally.
The green energy transition
Still in the early innings, efforts to reduce global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are fueling the rapid adoption of renewables and energy- efficient technologies (Exhibit 1). The International Energy Agency (IEA), in a joint analysis with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), estimates that total annual investment in clean energy and energy infrastructure will more than triple by the end of the decade, adding an extra 0.4 percentage points per year to annual global GDP growth.
The green/decarbonization transition has been and will likely continue to act as an accelerant to the demand for many raw materials, including base metals, precious metals and agriculture commodities (such as sugar, corn and soybeans used to make biofuels). For instance, the amount of copper used in an electric vehicle (EV) can be as much as three times greater than what’s in a conventional auto. As the world adopts EVs and invests in powerlines, wind turbines and other facilitators of the energy transition, we expect commodity demand to benefit materially.
Of course, the energy story is not just about alternatives. As we reasoned in a recent paper (Changing the imperative from ‘energy transition’ to ‘energy addition’), aggregate energy demand is likely to continue to increase for decades due to economic growth. This will create opportunities in the traditional energy value chain as well.
EXHIBIT 1
Clean energy investment is poised to soar
Estimated annual global spending on carbon emissions reduction US$ trillions (in 2019 dollars)
At October 31, 2021. Source: International Energy Agency, “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.”
There is no guarantee that any market forecast set forth in this material will be realized. See end notes for additional disclosures.
An expanding global middle class
In the next six years alone, the world’s population will increase by approximately 500 million to reach 8.4 billion (on its way to 9.7 billion by 2050), according to United Nations estimates. Population growth and urbanization have long driven resource consumption. Humanity’s call on resources will be stretched further, with 700 million more people living in cities by 2030 than in the previous decade.
Even more significant is the rapid expansion of the global middle class. The middle class is already the largest spending group in the world, accounting for one-third of the global economy. By 2030, the global middle class (also termed the “consumer class”) is expected to reach 4.8 billion people. This group’s purchasing power is expected to rise to $62 trillion annually, which would have a meaningful impact on consumption—and, consequently, demand for natural resources (Exhibit 2).
Most of this growth is occurring in developing economies, where per capita consumption of energy and materials is significantly lower than in developed economies. According to the IEA, lower-middle income countries currently consume 6,658 kWh of energy per capita, compared with 56,469 kWh in high-income countries. With its increasing wealth, the expanding middle class will require more food, energy and many other commodities to help meet its needs.
EXHIBIT 2
Growing global middle class is driving increased consumption
Projected population and spending growth
At November 30, 2023. Source: The Brookings Institution, Cohen & Steers analysis.
The middle class is defined here as households with per capita incomes of $11–$50 per day (in 2011 purchasing power parity terms) in lower-income countries and $51–$110 per day in upper-income countries. There is no guarantee that any forecast set forth in this material will be realized. See end notes for additional disclosures.
Commodity supply growth may be hampered by structural factors
The current decade is likely to be distinctly different than the last, which was a period marked by persistent surplus and, as a result, relatively low commodity prices. Today, inventories for many commodities are below their respective long-term averages, and we believe the supply of many commodities will remain structurally constrained going forward—contributing to the risk of unexpected inflationary bouts—due to numerous factors, including:
We believe the combination of secular demand drivers and limited ability to accelerate supply growth will result in higher commodities prices.
An alpha-generation setting for active managers
Energy
Population growth and rising incomes in developing economies mean the world’s consumption of energy will continue to expand for decades, even as energy efficiency accelerates and net-zero carbon emissions initiatives across 110 countries take hold. Alternative energy is expected to see significant market share gains, but demand for fossil fuels should increase meaningfully as well (Exhibit 3).
We believe the global energy markets will see significant declines in demand for coal and biomass. We expect crude oil demand to grow through the 2020s and then plateau and modestly decline during the 2030s; in our view, growth afterward will come from natural gas, nuclear and renewables such as wind, solar and hydrogen.
Within the resource equities space, we see four possible outcomes for energy companies: (1) traditional energy businesses that will adapt and thrive under the new energy regime, (2) traditional energy businesses that will become obsolete, (3) alternative energy businesses that will become the growth engines of the future and (4) alternative energy businesses that will fail to live up to their hype.
EXHIBIT 3
World needs will be met by both traditional and renewable energy
Composition and estimated growth of global energy consumption
At November 30, 2023. Source: U.S Energy Information Administration.
No representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any data compiled herein, and there can be no guarantee that any forecast or opinion will be realized. Percentages may not sum due to rounding. See end notes for additional disclosures.
Metal
Metals demand has been steadily growing, driven by the global forces surrounding industrialization and urbanization. The last supercycle resulted from China’s rapid industrialization, urbanization and capital formation. Many other large, emerging economies, such as India, remain in the early stages of economic development and have a growing appetite for metals.
Metals demand will be further lifted by energy transition needs (Exhibit 4). Carbon-neutral requirements call for the massive deployment of a wide range of clean energy technologies, many of which rely on critical minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earth elements. As demand pushes prices meaningfully higher, users will typically seek out alternatives. In some important instances, however, economically viable substitution is not always possible.
For copper, perhaps the most critical element in the energy transition, demand is expected to grow 82% between 2021 and 2035 as economies target the goal of net zero emissions by 2050, according to S&P Global.
We believe the marginal cost for many metals will rise sharply over time given (1) a higher cost of capital, (2) operating expenses pressured by inflation, (3) continued erosion of supply resiliencey, and (4) management teams that remain unwilling to greenlight new investments.
EXHIBIT 4
The energy transition will drive significant demand for many minerals
Minerals used in selected clean energy technologies
At May 4, 2021. Source: International Energy Agency, “The role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions.”
Minerals used in clean energy technologies compared with other power generation sources. Minerals used in electric cars compared with conventional cars. No representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any data compiled herein, and there can be no guarantee that any forecast or opinion will be realized. See end notes for additional disclosures.
Agriculture
Rising income levels, shifting diets and an increasingly crowded world will require a significant expansion in food production over the next several decades. It is well established that the average caloric intake per person increases as per capita income rises. Additionally, higher incomes translate into an increase in animal-derived protein consumption.
In addition to feeding humans, crops such as soybeans, corn and sugarcane are also used as feedstock for the production of biofuels. Increasing demand for biofuels, supported by government green energy policies worldwide, is reigniting the food vs. fuel debate that contributed to price spikes in the mid-2000s to early 2010s. The IEA expects global biofuel demand to increase by more than 20% in the five years ending in 2027. Increased production of feedstocks to meet the growing demand will require additional resources and compete for arable land, which will likely drive prices higher, benefiting producers.
The continued adoption of technology that allows farmers to increase efficiency will play a central role in meeting these needs (Exhibit 5). The future of agribusiness and agricultural commodities rests on creating more output per acre, and those companies well positioned to facilitate this transition stand to benefit materially.
EXHIBIT 5
Precision ag tech will be required to boost crop yields
Average crop yield impact of precision agriculture technology
At November 30, 2023. Source: USDA.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Precision agriculture technologies include tractor guidance systems using a global positioning system (GPS), GPS soil and yield mapping, and variable-rate input applications to gather information on changing field conditions to adjust production practices. No representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any data compiled herein, and there can be no guarantee that any forecast or opinion will be realized. See end notes for additional disclosures.
Precision ag adoption and optimizing for other factors that affect yield (chemicals, seed variety, etc.) can generate considerable increases in crop yields
The case for a strategic real assets allocation is strong
Regime shift favors inflation-linked assets
Considering the anticipated gap between strong demand and limited supply, potential issues such as labor shortages, a move towards more selective trade partnerships, and the potential for increased geopolitical uncertainty, we expect inflation to average 3% or more in the coming decade. We also believe the next decade will feature significantly higher volatility of inflation, with the potential for periodic inflationary shocks. In contrast, in the last decade, inflation was stable and averaged less than 2%.
We believe this new environment will favor real assets—asset classes that typically have high, positive sensitivity to inflation.
Commodity returns could see a marked improvement over the previous decade (Exhibit 6). This would be driven by a combination of supply/demand imbalances, higher production costs, and higher expected collateral returns. In the case of the latter, the sharp rise in short-term interest rates in the past two years (and the potential for rates to remain “higher for longer” going forward) is likely to result in greater interest income on collateral set aside for the purchase of commodity futures.
Returns in natural resource equities over the next 10 years are expected to exceed those of the broader global equity market. Greater extraction costs, increased regulation, resource scarcity and recent underinvestment are all likely to play a role. At the same time, the revenue pressures resource producers have faced in recent years have instilled greater capital discipline and a focus on profitability, which may also support valuations.
EXHIBIT 6
Return expectations in the new regime favor natural resources
Cohen & Steers’ capital market expectations of annualized returns vs. prior decade (%)
At December 31, 2022. Source: Refinitiv Datastream, Bloomberg, Cohen & Steers.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Forecasts are inherently limited and there is no guarantee that any market forecast will be realized. 2013–2022 performance represented by the following: Natural Resource Equities: S&P Global Natural Resource Equities Index. Commodities: Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index. Equities: U.S.: S&P 500 Index; EAFE: MSCI EAFE Index. Bonds: Long-term U.S. Treasuries: Bloomberg U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Index; Long-term corporates: Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Corporate Bond Index. See endnotes for assumptions for the expected returns and additional disclosures.
A counterbalance for traditional stock/bond portfolios
The current economic environment—marked by elevated inflation, rising interest rates, deglobalization, tight labor markets and heightened geopolitical risks—is likely to drive long-term investor interest in real assets, particularly natural resource equities and commodities. Whether as standalone investments or as part of a diversified real assets allocation, we believe natural resource equities and commodities merit permanent positions in a balanced portfolio.
Given their vital role in sustainable development and decarbonization, commodities and resource producers potentially stand to generate above-average returns in the coming decade. History shows that inflation tends to be most damaging to stocks and bonds when it is unexpected. In contrast, our analysis suggests that real assets tend to experience strong returns precisely during those periods when realized inflation exceeds prior expectations.
Exhibit 7 shows the impact of unexpected inflation using a metric we call “inflation beta.” Inflation beta measures the sensitivity of returns to a 1% upside surprise in realized inflation (relative to the inflation estimate from a year before). An asset class with a positive inflation beta should generally react favorably to inflation surprises. For instance, the chart below shows that commodities historically outperformed their long-term average by 7.3% for every 1% that inflation exceeded its prior-year estimate. We believe this is a strong indicator that real assets can serve as an effective inflation hedge (though they are not dependent on inflation to produce strong returns).
EXHIBIT 7
Real assets can offer investors diversification in inflationary environments
Inflation beta
May 1991–September 2023
At September 30, 2023. Source: Barclays, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, FTSE, S&P, Refinitiv Datastream, Cohen & Steers proprietary analysis.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any historical trend illustrated above will be repeated in the future, and there is no way to predict precisely when such a trend will begin. Inflation beta is the sensitivity of returns to unexpected inflation, determined by calculating the multivariate regression beta of 1-year real returns to the difference between the year-over-year realized inflation rate and lagged 1-year-ahead expected inflation, including the level of the lagged expected inflation rate. Expected inflation as measured reflects median inflation expectation from the University of Michigan survey of 1-year-ahead inflation expectations. Realized inflation is measured using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all urban consumers, published by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. The information presented above does not reflect the performance of any fund or other account managed or serviced by Cohen & Steers, and there is no guarantee that investors will experience the type of performance reflected above. See end notes for index associations, definitions and additional disclosures.
Enhancing their appeal, commodities and natural resource equities’ current valuations and financial profiles are attractive compared with history (Exhibit 8). For instance, as a whole, natural resource producers today are generating significant free cash flow, have low debt-to-equity ratios and have limited capital outlays compared with past cycles.
EXHIBIT 8
Real assets are attractively priced relative to stocks
Valuation scores vs. global equities
At September 30, 2023. Source: Bloomberg, S&P Xpressfeed, Cohen & Steers.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Based on monthly data, quarterly results are shown. The information presented above does not reflect the performance of any fund or other account managed or serviced by Cohen & Steers, and there is no guarantee investors will experience the type of performance reflected above. There is no guarantee that any historical trend illustrated above will be repeated in the future, and there is no way to predict precisely when such a trend might begin. Valuation measures are composites of cashflow-to-price, dividend yield and book-to-price for natural resource equities and global equities; for commodities, by the z-score of the premium/discount of spot prices versus their long-term inflation-adjusted spot prices. Natural resource equities represented by proprietary Cohen & Steers data constructed from S&P Global Xpressfeed database. Global equities represented by Datastream World Index. Commodities represented by Bloomberg Commodity Index weighted real spot prices. See end notes for additional disclosures.
A blended solution
Given the regime shift now underway, a diversified multi-asset-class approach to real assets offers distinct advantages from an investment perspective, historically providing:
- Outperformance in inflationary periods
- Enhanced risk-adjusted returns via portfolio diversification
- Strong total returns over full cycles
No single real assets category (including global real estate and global listed infrastructure, in addition to natural resource equities and commodities) offers a “silver bullet” solution that excels across all three criteria of prospective diversification, expected returns and potential inflation protection. However, a diversified portfolio of real assets may help investors better navigate the tradeoffs of individual categories and may effectively enhance the risk/return profile of portfolios concentrated in stocks and bonds.
Given supportive fundamentals and attractive valuations, we believe real assets are poised for a multi-year period of outperformance.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Tyler Rosenlicht, Senior Vice President, is a portfolio manager for Global Listed Infrastructure and serves as Head of Natural Resource Equities.
Ben Ross, Senior Vice President, is Head of Commodities and a portfolio manager for Cohen & Steers’ commodities strategy.
FURTHER READING
InvestmentNews: Cohen & Steers strategist sheds new light on investing in energy sector
Portfolio Manager Tyler Rosenlicht joined InvestmentNews’ IN the Nasdaq to discuss his outlook for the future of energy and why he believes existing investment strategies provide a limited view of the asset class. He discusses why global energy demand is driving the need for energy addition, requiring both traditional and alternative energy to satisfy this demand.
3 Reasons to own real assets
A diversified blend of real assets can potentially play a vital role in the new regime of higher inflation, higher rates and increased market volatility.
Secular drivers of inflation
Recent data indicates a slowing inflation trend, yet risks persist. Secular forces suggest that a prolonged elevated inflation period is underway with the potential for periodic price spikes. Factors driving long-term inflation include commodity underinvestment, tight labor markets, geopolitics, deglobalization and fiscal uncertainty. We see parallels to past inflationary eras, which highlight the difficulty of controlling inflation. While not predicting a return to 9%, the expectation is for a decade of higher-than-accustomed inflation, underscoring the importance of having a real assets allocation.
Index definitions and important disclosures
An investor cannot invest directly in an index and index performance does not reflect the deduction of any fees, expenses or taxes. Index comparisons have limitations as volatility and other characteristics may differ from a particular investment.
Real assets blend: 27.5% real estate, 27.5% commodities, 15% infrastructure, 15% resource equities, 10% short-duration fixed income and 5% gold. Real estate: Datastream Developed Real Estate Index through 2/28/05; FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index thereafter. The Datastream Developed Real Estate Index encompasses listed real estate companies in developed markets and is compiled by Refinitiv Datastream. The FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Index is an unmanaged market-weighted total return index consisting of many companies from developed markets that derive more than half of their revenue from property-related activities. Commodities: S&P GSCI Index through 7/31/98; the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index thereafter. The S&P GSCI Index is a composite index of commodity sector returns representing an unleveraged, long-only investment in commodity futures that is broadly diversified across the spectrum of commodities. The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index, formerly known as the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index, is a broadly diversified index that tracks the commodity markets through exchange-traded futures on physical commodities, which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity. Infrastructure: 50/30/20 blend of Datastream World Gas, Water & Multi-Utilities, Datastream World Pipelines and Datastream World Railroads through 7/31/08; Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index thereafter. The Datastream World Index Series encompasses global indexes of companies in their respective sectors (World Gas, Water & Multi-Utilities; Materials; Oil & Gas; and Pipelines) and is compiled by Refinitiv Datastream. The Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index is a float-adjusted, market-capitalization-weighted index that measures the performance of globally domiciled companies that derive more than 70% of their cash flows from infrastructure lines of business. Resource equities: 50/50 Blend of Datastream World Oil & Gas and Datastream World Basic Materials through 5/31/08; S&P Global Natural Resources Index thereafter. The Datastream World Index Series encompasses global indexes of companies in their respective sectors (Datastream World Oil & Gas and Datastream World Basic Materials) and is compiled by Refinitiv Datastream. The S&P Global Natural Resources Index includes 90 of the largest publicly traded companies in natural resources and commodities businesses that meet specific investability requirements, offering investors a diversified, liquid and investable equity exposure across three primary commodity-related sectors: Agribusiness, Energy and Metals & Mining. Short-duration fixed income: The ICE BofA 1–3 Year U.S. Corporate Index tracks the performance of USD-denominated investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market with a remaining term to maturity of less than 3 years. Gold: Gold spot price in USD per Troy ounce. Global stocks: MSCI World Index, a market-capitalization-weighted index consisting of a wide selection of stocks traded in 24 developed markets. U.S. Treasury bonds: The ICE BofA U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index measures the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity of greater than 7 years and less than or equal to 10 years.
Data quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any historical trend illustrated/referenced above will be repeated in the future, and there is no way to predict precisely when such a trend might begin. There is no guarantee that any market forecast set forth in this commentary will be realized. The views and opinions in the preceding commentary are as of the date of publication and are subject to change. Diversification is not guaranteed to ensure a profit or protect against loss. There is no guarantee that actively managed investments will outperform the broader market.
This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and should not be relied upon as investment advice, does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell a security or other investment, and is not intended to predict or depict performance of any investment. This material is not being provided in a fiduciary capacity and is not intended to recommend any investment policy or investment strategy or take into account the specific objectives or circumstances of any investor. We consider the information in this presentation to be accurate, but we do not represent that it is complete or should be relied upon as the sole source of appropriateness for investment. Please consult with your investment, tax or legal professional regarding your individual circumstances prior to investing. The views and opinions expressed are not necessarily those of any broker/dealer or its affiliates. Nothing discussed or suggested should be construed as permission to supersede or circumvent any broker/dealer policies, procedures, rules or guidelines.
IMPORTANT: The capital market assumptions regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The expectations and other information are for educational and illustrative purposes only. Hypothetical performance has inherent risks and limitations, and prospective investors should not place undue reliance on any such information. Because of Cohen & Steers’ investment focus on real assets, Cohen & Steers will benefit from increased interest in the real asset classes and you should keep this conflict in mind when evaluating the capital market assumptions. Other investments may have characteristics similar or superior to real assets. Additionally, Cohen & Steers may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the capital markets assumptions or any views expressed herein. Cohen & Steers may also develop and publish material that is independent of, and different than, the capital market assumptions or any views expressed herein.
The intent of the capital markets assumptions is not to predict or project future returns of any investment, asset class or portfolio. Instead, the purpose of the capital markets assumptions is to express Cohen & Steers’ view of expected general asset class returns of the period shown, which may be incorrect, potentially materially so, and are subject to change without notice.
By receiving this communication you agree with and acknowledge the limitations of the capital markets assumptions, the associated conflicts and the restrictions on use described herein.
The information presented is provided as educational, and is not intended to be and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to invest in any specific security or asset class or to adopt any investment strategy or as the primary basis for any investment decisions. Prior to making a decision to invest in any security or asset class, you should consult with your financial professional to determine whether the decision is appropriate for you. Return, yield and volatility expectations are based on Cohen & Steers’ analysis, are not a guarantee of future performance and do not represent the past or projected performance of any fund, an investor, or other account managed by Cohen & Steers.
The assumptions used to form the basis for the information presented are as of the date shown and are subject to change. Projected returns, yield, volatility and liquidity are subject to many factors that are uncertain and outside the control of Cohen & Steers, and analysis which may be subject to error. Projected outcomes depend on economic events, which even if they occur, could result in outcomes that could be materially higher or lower than expected. The performance expectations displayed represent the mid point possible expectations within a broader range of possible outcomes, some of which are negative. Actual outcomes could be materially lower than the central expectations.
Criteria and Methodology
Inputs to these expectations include return, volatility, and correlation across asset classes. Assumptions are generally not updated on a real-time basis, therefore results may vary with each use and over time. All such expectations are subject to change.
Expectations for returns are driven by a range of factors. Within fixed income, forecasts for interest rates are determined at various maturities based on economic growth, inflation, and policy expectations as well as factors such as the shape of the yield curve, the expected level of real interest rates and inflation breakevens, and credit spreads. These interest rates are used to compute expectations for total returns, accounting for the starting point of bond yields, capital gain/loss based on assumption of benchmark duration, and yield. Treasury bond returns are based on expectations for the level of inflation, the path of future short-term rates, and an expectation for the slope of the yield curve. Credit returns, including corporate, high yield and preferreds are based on expectations of fair value spread levels along with adjustments for historical downgrade and default risk through an economic cycle.
For equities, including listed real assets, various factors contribute to total return expectations. Expectations are based on estimates for earnings growth and fair value multiples. Earnings growth expectations are driven by anticipated profitability and payout ratios, while valuation multiples are based on expected interest rates, risk premiums, and growth rates. Changes in valuations are driven by forecasts of interest rates, risk premiums, growth, and profitability. Dividend yield also contributes to total return.
For commodities, we forecast investable returns on commodity total returns by coming up with expectations on index-level spot returns, roll returns, and collateral returns. Spot returns are a function of inflation and expectations of supply/ demand/inventory balances, roll returns are a function of the typical shape of the commodity futures curve, and collateral returns are a function of our forecast for short term interest rates.
Certain inputs into the capital market assumptions have been obtained from sources that Cohen & Steers believes to be reliable as of the date presented; however, Cohen & Steers cannot guarantee the accuracy of such content, assure its completeness, or warrant that such information will not be changed. The content herein and inputs into the capital market assumptions are current as of the date of publishment (or such earlier date as referenced herein) and are subject to change without notice. Cohen & Steers does not make any express or implied warranties or representations as to the inputs into the capital market assumptions or the completeness or accuracy of its results.
Real assets risks: A real assets strategy is subject to the risk that its asset allocations may not achieve the desired risk/return characteristic, may underperform other similar investment strategies, or may cause an investor to lose money. The risks of investing in REITs are similar to those associated with direct investments in real estate securities. Property values may fall due to increasing vacancies, declining rents resulting from economic, legal, tax, political or technological developments, lack of liquidity, limited diversification and sensitivity to certain economic factors such as interest rate changes and market recessions. The market value of securities of natural resource companies may be affected by numerous factors, including events occurring in nature, inflationary pressures and international politics. Global infrastructure securities may be subject to regulation by various governmental authorities, such as rates charged to customers, operational or other mishaps, tariffs and changes in tax laws, regulatory policies and accounting standards. Foreign securities involve special risks, including currency fluctuation and lower liquidity. An investment in commodity-linked derivative instruments may be subject to greater volatility than investments in traditional securities, particularly if the instruments involve leverage. The value of commodity-linked derivative instruments may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates, or factors affecting a particular industry or commodity, such as drought, floods, weather, livestock disease, embargoes, tariffs and international economic, political and regulatory developments. The use of derivatives presents risks different from, and possibly greater than, the risks associated with investing directly in traditional securities. Among the risks presented are market risk, credit risk, counterparty risk, leverage risk and liquidity risk. The use of derivatives can lead to losses because of adverse movements in the price or value of the underlying asset, index or rate, which may be magnified by certain features of the derivatives. No representation or warranty is made as to the efficacy of any particular strategy or fund or the actual returns that may be achieved. Futures trading is volatile and highly leveraged and may be illiquid. Investments in commodity futures contracts and options on commodity futures contracts have a high degree of price variability and are subject to rapid and substantial price changes. Such investments could incur significant losses. There can be no assurance that the options strategy will be successful. The use of options on commodity futures contracts is to enhance risk-adjusted total returns. However, the use of options may not provide any, or may provide only partial, protection from market declines. The return performance of the commodity futures contracts may not parallel the performance of the commodities or indexes that serve as the basis for the options they buy or sell; this basis risk may reduce overall returns.
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